Fixed Income: A tendency to outperform

The Swedish Economic Tendency Survey is a report that, on a monthly basis, summarizes how firms and households view the economy and business. Unsurprisingly, the latest data points draw quite a gloomy picture of where the Swedish economy is heading, as it once again fell back to levels not seen since the Covid crisis and the Financial Crisis.

Adding some financial data to the picture gives the impression that Equities are expensive vs Bonds and has been too early in its outperformance. Or put differently, that the relationship and valuation of the two asset classes is in parity with an economic outlook at normal standards (i.e. sentiment index at 100) and not a contracting economcy (i.e. sentiment at sub-90 levels).