Those words are normally delivered by the Riksbank in conjunction with the rate forecast, to highlight the uncertainty in the projection. The Riksbank put little pride in the accuracy of the rate forecast (unlike banks) and that humbleness is very wise, as the error between the forecasts and the realized policy rate has, mildly speaking, been quite substantial. Even though the forecast error is well understood by markets, the attention the path is receiving is still very high, as it’s supposed to have and give (unlike a bank forecast) a signaling value. Both to market speculators and to the wider economy.
In just a few meetings ahead, it is time to release the 100th rate path and such anniversary require some reflection. In the chart below, all those rate paths are forming the grey-shaded area. This area is indeed very wide, and the realized policy rate is frequently found in the very endpoints of it. Especially in the lower end of the area, meaning that there has been a clear hawkish tendency in terms of the relation between estimated and realized rates.
However, that hawkish tendency does indeed not hold for the period between April 2020 and September 2021. As the table below illustrates, the Riksbank did come forward with a rate projection in eight straight meetings of only zeroes. Basically giving a, no rate today, no rate tomorrow and never-a-rate-in-sight type of message. In terms of signaling value, it will be hard to beat this episode. A few decisions were likely made in relation to debt and risk, during the zero-interest rate policy period, that today appears to be nothing but a major mistake (the sharp eye can also see that in September 2021, the repo rate was estimated to be 0,00% throughout Q1 2024 but turned out to be 4.00%…)
The point is not to criticize, but to recapitulate the meaning of “it is not a promise”. The future is unlikely to be different in terms of forecast errors and in essence, it is better to look at any forecast with a mindset that it represents a good guess out of many, but an unlikely one to be realized. Alternatively say “thanks for providing the forecast, now we know what is not going to happen”.