The zero interest policy episode was a crazy period out of many perspectives and central banks did indeed deviate notably from the historical reaction function know for decades. As the chart should serve to illustrate, to the left of the vertical line, policy was fairly neutral to the Taylor Rule and labor market sentiment, while the period to the right, was simply just something totally different.
Even though the market is pricing is currently a long streak of rate cuts, there is no alarming evidence yet that such discounting is fully warranted. Macro ammunition backing a move from 4% to 3% will most certainly arrive, but it will be another story for the remaining move from 3% to 2%.
